Lommel United 1-0 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Deinze at Soevereinstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 December 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lommel United — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United at Soevereinstadion this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deinze stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.50 PPG versus Deinze's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lommel United, 1 for Deinze and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Deinze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Deinze in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lommel United 57% and Deinze 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 64% | Deinze 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.32 xG and Deinze 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.961 / defence 1.182 | Deinze attack 0.676 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.467. Data: 44 Lommel United games / 44 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 40% | Draw 27% | Deinze 33%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Deinze 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 70% | Deinze 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 40% | Draw 27% | Deinze 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Lommel United 1.32 / Deinze 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.961 / def 1.182 | Deinze attack 0.676 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Deinze xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Deinze kick off?
Lommel United vs Deinze kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Deinze?
Lommel United 1 - 0 Deinze.
Where is Lommel United vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Deinze part of?
Lommel United vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 40% chance of winning, Deinze a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lommel United and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Deinze?
Record (2 meetings): Lommel United 1W | Draws 0 | Deinze 1W.
What form are Lommel United and Deinze in?
Lommel United (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Deinze (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.96x the league average against Deinze's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.71
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.49
1.17
Deinze xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.17 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 17W 8D 19L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze's form line: 15W 15D 14L from 44 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.34 PPG, Deinze on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (8W 4D 10L).
On the road, Deinze have gone 6W 8D 8L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.52 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Deinze in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 17W 8D 19L in their last 44 games (1.34 PPG), while Deinze have gone 15W 15D 14L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Deinze away?
Lommel United's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.27 PPG; Deinze away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lommel United
3
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Deinze?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 5, Deinze have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Lommel United 1-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Deinze?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 59%, Deinze 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Lommel United) and 50% (Deinze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United have failed to score in 32% of games; Deinze in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lommel United's games and 54% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Lommel United's matches and 50% of Deinze's.
Do Lommel United and Deinze tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Deinze in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lommel United edge out Deinze 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Deinze 1-0 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.32 xG and Deinze 1.17 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Deinze landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Deinze attack 0.68 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 40% | Draw 27% | Deinze 33%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 64%, Deinze 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Deinze's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.34 PPG, Deinze 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.