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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Club Brugge II defy the odds to beat Lommel United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Club Brugge II beat Lommel United 0-1 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 2.03 xG and Club Brugge II 1.24 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lommel United fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.21 / defence 0.98 against Club Brugge II attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 56% | Draw 21% | Club Brugge II 23%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Club Brugge II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 56%, Club Brugge II 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Club Brugge II's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.41 PPG, Club Brugge II 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Club Brugge II win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights