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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out Lommel United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beerschot VA beat Lommel United 1-2 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.16 xG and Beerschot VA 1.29 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Beerschot VA attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 31% | Draw 31% | Beerschot VA 38%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 54%, Beerschot VA 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Beerschot VA's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.23 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights