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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out Lokeren-Temse 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat Lokeren-Temse 1-2 at Daknamstadion, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 0.93 xG and Patro Eisden 1.30 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Patro Eisden attack 1.02 / defence 0.82, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 27% | Draw 28% | Patro Eisden 45%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 42%, Patro Eisden 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights