Lokeren-Temse 2-2 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daknamstadion plays host to Lokeren-Temse versus Patro Eisden in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lokeren-Temse's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Lokeren-Temse have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Patro Eisden (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Patro Eisden have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Patro Eisden's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Patro Eisden are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Patro Eisden in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Lokeren-Temse half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Patro Eisden half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 0% versus Patro Eisden 100%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 33% | Patro Eisden 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 0.83 xG and Patro Eisden 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.730 / defence 1.061 | Patro Eisden attack 0.864 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.415. Lokeren-Temse's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Lokeren-Temse games / 33 Patro Eisden games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 24% | Draw 29% | Patro Eisden 47%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Patro Eisden 2.13. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Patro Eisden as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 0% | Patro Eisden 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 24% | Draw 29% | Patro Eisden 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Lokeren-Temse 0.83 / Patro Eisden 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.730 / def 1.061 | Patro Eisden attack 0.864 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Patro Eisden xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden?
Lokeren-Temse 2 - 2 Patro Eisden.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 24% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lokeren-Temse's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Patro Eisden's attack (0.86x) against Lokeren-Temse's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
24%
4.17
29%
3.49
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
2.13
1.30
Patro Eisden xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
15.24
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 15.4 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.30 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Lokeren-Temse have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 3L record — L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Patro Eisden's form line: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Patro Eisden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Patro Eisden are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lokeren-Temse.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Patro Eisden in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Early Season
Patro Eisden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Patro Eisden won 4-1 on 17 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Patro Eisden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Lokeren-Temse
3
Draws
3
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden?
From 6 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 0, Patro Eisden have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when Lokeren-Temse 1-1 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 0%, Patro Eisden 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lokeren-Temse) and 67% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 100% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 67% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden finished level at 2-2 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 0.83 xG and Patro Eisden 1.30 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lokeren-Temse beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.73 / defence 1.06 against Patro Eisden attack 0.86 / defence 0.89, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 24% | Draw 29% | Patro Eisden 47%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 33%, Patro Eisden 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lokeren-Temse scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.