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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lokeren-Temse defy the odds to beat Lommel United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lokeren-Temse beat Lommel United 1-0 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.32 xG and Lommel United 1.40 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lommel United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.77 / defence 1.16 against Lommel United attack 0.92 / defence 1.26, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 35% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 39%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lokeren-Temse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 44%, Lommel United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Lommel United's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lokeren-Temse 1.20 PPG, Lommel United 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lokeren-Temse win broke the near-deadlock. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights