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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lokeren-Temse defy the odds to beat Liège 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lokeren-Temse beat Liège 2-1 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.08 xG and Liège 1.84 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lokeren-Temse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Liège landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.70 / defence 1.20 against Liège attack 1.13 / defence 1.14, drawn from 24/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 22% | Draw 23% | Liège 55%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Lokeren-Temse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 42%, Liège 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Liège's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lokeren-Temse 1.12 PPG, Liège 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lokeren-Temse win broke the near-deadlock. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights