Lokeren-Temse 1-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Daknamstadion to face Lokeren-Temse in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Lokeren-Temse (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokeren-Temse's home record at Daknamstadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kortrijk have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 away games — 2.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Kortrijk arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Lokeren-Temse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 46% versus Kortrijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 46% | Kortrijk 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.60 xG and Kortrijk 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.186 / defence 1.207 | Kortrijk attack 1.299 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.372. Kortrijk have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Lokeren-Temse games / 13 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 28% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 49%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Kortrijk 2.04. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 50% | Kortrijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 28% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Lokeren-Temse 1.60 / Kortrijk 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.186 / def 1.207 | Kortrijk attack 1.299 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Kortrijk xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk?
Lokeren-Temse 1 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 28% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Kortrijk in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lokeren-Temse's attack rating (1.19) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (1.30x) against Lokeren-Temse's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 42/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
28%
3.59
23%
4.38
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
3.75
2.15
Kortrijk xG
3.59
28%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
12%
8.59
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
3%
30.86
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 2.15 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lokeren-Temse come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 10D 19L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 1.48 PPG from 46 outings (20W 8D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Lokeren-Temse against 1.48 for Kortrijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lokeren-Temse's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (9W 3D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.41 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 20W 8D 18L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokeren-Temse at home or Kortrijk away?
Lokeren-Temse's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokeren-Temse at home: 1.36 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lokeren-Temse
1
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Kortrijk?
From 2 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 0, Kortrijk have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Kortrijk 3-2 Lokeren-Temse.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 46%, Kortrijk 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Lokeren-Temse and 73% for Kortrijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lokeren-Temse keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 32% of games; Kortrijk in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 54% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lokeren-Temse's matches and 73% of Kortrijk's.
Do Lokeren-Temse and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lokeren-Temse and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 15, as Lokeren-Temse and Kortrijk drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.60 xG and Kortrijk 2.15 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kortrijk landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 1.19 / defence 1.21 against Kortrijk attack 1.30 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 28% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 49%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 46%, Kortrijk 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lokeren-Temse 1.33 PPG, Kortrijk 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.