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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lokeren-Temse and K. Lierse S.K. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lokeren-Temse and K. Lierse S.K. finished level at 1-1 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.12 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.29 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.70 / defence 1.12 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 32% | Draw 27% | K. Lierse S.K. 40%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 35%, K. Lierse S.K. 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lokeren-Temse 0.94 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights