🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Lokeren-Temse at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Lokeren-Temse welcome Francs Borains to Daknamstadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Lokeren-Temse — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lokeren-Temse's home record at Daknamstadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lokeren-Temse are significantly better at Daknamstadion than their overall form suggests.

Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Francs Borains have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Lokeren-Temse) versus 1.00 (Francs Borains). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lokeren-Temse, 1 for Francs Borains and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Lokeren-Temse winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Lokeren-Temse in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 44% versus Francs Borains 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 44% | Francs Borains 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 2.09 xG and Francs Borains 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.102 / defence 1.088 | Francs Borains attack 0.776 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.419. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing Lokeren-Temse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Lokeren-Temse games / 39 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 57% | Draw 23% | Francs Borains 20%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Francs Borains 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Lokeren-Temse (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lokeren-Temse are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 50% | Francs Borains 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights