Lokeren-Temse 0-1 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Francs Borains at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Lokeren-Temse welcome Francs Borains to Daknamstadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lokeren-Temse — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Lokeren-Temse have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Francs Borains have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Francs Borains's 1.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Lokeren-Temse's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.21 xG and Francs Borains 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Francs Borains attack 1.027 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.458. Data: 1 Lokeren-Temse games / 31 Francs Borains games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 27% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 50%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Francs Borains 2.00. Francs Borains hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Francs Borains are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Francs Borains offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 27% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Lokeren-Temse 1.21 / Francs Borains 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Francs Borains attack 1.027 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Francs Borains xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains?
Lokeren-Temse 0 - 1 Francs Borains.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 27% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Francs Borains?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Francs Borains in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L. Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lokeren-Temse's attack at 0.87x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus Lokeren-Temse's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
27%
3.74
24%
4.21
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
2.93
1.72
Francs Borains xG
3.74
27%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
5%
20.95
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.72 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Lokeren-Temse have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Francs Borains's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Francs Borains, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lokeren-Temse on 0.00 PPG, Francs Borains on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Francs Borains in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Early Season
Francs Borains
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lokeren-Temse and Francs Borains runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lokeren-Temse's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lokeren-Temse
1
Draws
2
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Francs Borains?
From 4 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 1, Francs Borains have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Francs Borains 1-0 Lokeren-Temse.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and Francs Borains?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 0% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 0% of Francs Borains's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Francs Borains edge out Lokeren-Temse 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Lokeren-Temse 0-1 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.21 xG and Francs Borains 1.72 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lokeren-Temse fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Francs Borains attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 27% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 50%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 100%, Francs Borains 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lokeren-Temse 0.00 PPG, Francs Borains 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. Lokeren-Temse conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.