Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lokeren-Temse at 38%, yet in-form Beerschot VA provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Lokeren-Temse welcome Beerschot VA to Daknamstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lokeren-Temse — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokeren-Temse's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Daknamstadion this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Beerschot VA have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Beerschot VA — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lokeren-Temse, 1 for Beerschot VA and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lokeren-Temse in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lokeren-Temse 72% and Beerschot VA 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 55% | Beerschot VA 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.34 xG and Beerschot VA 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.036 / defence 1.024 | Beerschot VA attack 0.947 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.339. Beerschot VA's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Lokeren-Temse games / 41 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 38% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 36%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Beerschot VA 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lokeren-Temse at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beerschot VA (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lokeren-Temse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 90% | Beerschot VA 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 38% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Lokeren-Temse 1.34 / Beerschot VA 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.036 / def 1.024 | Beerschot VA attack 0.947 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Beerschot VA xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Daknamstadion.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 38% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA?
Record (2 meetings): Lokeren-Temse 0W | Draws 1 | Beerschot VA 1W.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Beerschot VA (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lokeren-Temse's attack at 1.04x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Lokeren-Temse's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.82
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
2.64
1.30
Beerschot VA xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.30 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lokeren-Temse's recent record stands at 14W 13D 13L from 40 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 25W 6D 9L across 40 games — 2.02 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lokeren-Temse heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lokeren-Temse have managed 6W 9D 4L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 11W 3D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.85 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beerschot VA in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 14W 13D 13L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 25W 6D 9L in their last 40 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokeren-Temse at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokeren-Temse at home: 1.42 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Lokeren-Temse or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokeren-Temse have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lokeren-Temse
1
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA?
From 2 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 0-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 79%, Beerschot VA 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lokeren-Temse) and 47% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Lokeren-Temse's games and 47% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 47% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.