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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lokeren-Temse and AS Eupen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lokeren-Temse and AS Eupen finished level at 3-3 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.20 xG and AS Eupen 1.56 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lokeren-Temse beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Eupen outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against AS Eupen attack 1.21 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 28% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 44%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 44%, AS Eupen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

AS Eupen's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lokeren-Temse 1.41 PPG, AS Eupen 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights