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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liège and Zulte Waregem share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 18, as Liège and Zulte Waregem drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.21 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.62 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.96 / defence 0.92 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.28 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 29% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 47%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 60%, Zulte Waregem 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights