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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Liège 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Liège 1-2 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 0.75 xG and SK Beveren 1.81 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against SK Beveren attack 1.41 / defence 0.65, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 14% | Draw 25% | SK Beveren 61%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 54%, SK Beveren 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

SK Beveren's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Liège (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights