Liège 0-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Liège vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SK Beveren make the trip to Stade de Rocourt to face Liège in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Liège have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Liège have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Liège's home record at Stade de Rocourt: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Liège are significantly better at Stade de Rocourt than their overall form suggests.
SK Beveren's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Liège, 1.40 for SK Beveren — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Liège lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 5–1 with Liège winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Liège half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liège 53% versus SK Beveren 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 59% | SK Beveren 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 1.50 xG and SK Beveren 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 0.951 / defence 1.140 | SK Beveren attack 1.013 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.425. Data: 32 Liège games / 32 SK Beveren games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Liège 35% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 41%. Fair-value odds: Liège 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | SK Beveren 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Liège 40% | SK Beveren 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liège vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de Rocourt • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liège 35% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Liège 1.50 / SK Beveren 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Liège attack 0.951 / def 1.140 | SK Beveren attack 1.013 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Liège xG
Expected Goals
1.65
SK Beveren xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liège vs SK Beveren kick off?
Liège vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stade de Rocourt.
What was the final score in Liège vs SK Beveren?
Liège 0 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is Liège vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Rocourt.
What competition is Liège vs SK Beveren part of?
Liège vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Liège vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Liège a 35% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liège vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Liège and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Liège vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and SK Beveren?
Record (2 meetings): Liège 2W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 0W.
What form are Liège and SK Beveren in?
Liège (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Liège's attack rating (0.95) and SK Beveren's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (1.01x) against Liège's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
35%
2.86
24%
4.24
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Liège xG
Total xG
3.14
1.65
SK Beveren xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
7%
14.80
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liège vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Liège and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Liège and 1.65 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Liège vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Liège have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 15W 4D 13L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Liège, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren's form line: 14W 7D 11L from 32 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Liège against 1.53 for SK Beveren. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Liège have posted 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (9W 1D 6L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 6W 4D 6L from 16 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Liège are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.50 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liège
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liège and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Liège have gone 15W 4D 13L in their last 32 games (1.53 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 14W 7D 11L in their last 32 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liège at home or SK Beveren away?
Liège's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liège at home: 1.75 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liège won 5-1 on 31 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liège have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Liège
1
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and SK Beveren?
From 6 meetings on record, Liège have won 2, SK Beveren have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Liège and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when SK Beveren 4-0 Liège.
Who has won more matches between Liège and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liège 44%, SK Beveren 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Liège) and 56% (SK Beveren).
On the defensive side: Liège keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SK Beveren in 38%; SK Beveren in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liège home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liège play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Liège's recent matches and 44% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liège vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Liège's recent games and 56% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liège and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Liège have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Liège's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 3, as Liège and SK Beveren drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.50 xG and SK Beveren 1.65 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Liège fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SK Beveren landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against SK Beveren attack 1.01 / defence 1.16, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Liège 35% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 41%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 59%, SK Beveren 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liège's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liège 1.53 PPG, SK Beveren 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Liège (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.