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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liège cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Seraing United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat Seraing United 2-0 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.53 xG and Seraing United 1.28 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Seraing United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Seraing United attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Liège 43% | Draw 25% | Seraing United 32%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 63%, Seraing United 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Seraing United's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Liège (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Seraing United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights