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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Liège edge out RWDM 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat RWDM 4-3 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.57 xG and RWDM 1.29 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Liège beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RWDM outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.25 / defence 0.85 against RWDM attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 42% | Draw 28% | RWDM 30%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 56%, RWDM 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

RWDM's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Liège winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Liège (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RWDM (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights