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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liège and RSC Anderlecht II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège and RSC Anderlecht II finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.12 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.11 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 36% | Draw 29% | RSC Anderlecht II 35%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 54%, RSC Anderlecht II 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights