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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liège and Patro Eisden share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 27, as Liège and Patro Eisden drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 0.94 xG and Patro Eisden 1.24 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Liège beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.95 / defence 0.89 against Patro Eisden attack 1.06 / defence 0.72, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 28% | Draw 29% | Patro Eisden 43%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 59%, Patro Eisden 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liège 1.46 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Liège (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights