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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Liège edge out Lommel United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat Lommel United 1-0 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.72 xG and Lommel United 1.63 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lommel United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.17 / defence 0.95 against Lommel United attack 1.25 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 41% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 37%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 55%, Lommel United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Lommel United's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liège 1.43 PPG, Lommel United 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock. Liège (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights