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Shock result as Lokeren-Temse defy the odds to beat Liège 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lokeren-Temse beat Liège 0-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.47 xG and Lokeren-Temse 0.89 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Liège fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against Lokeren-Temse attack 0.73 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 51% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 23%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Lokeren-Temse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 71%, Lokeren-Temse 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liège 1.14 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lokeren-Temse win broke the near-deadlock. Liège (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights