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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liège cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over KRC Genk II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat KRC Genk II 3-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.96 xG and KRC Genk II 0.84 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Liège beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against KRC Genk II attack 0.69 / defence 1.40, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 64% | Draw 21% | KRC Genk II 15%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 61%, KRC Genk II 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Liège (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights