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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liège cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kortrijk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat Kortrijk 2-0 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.57 xG and Kortrijk 1.71 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kortrijk landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.22 / defence 1.08 against Kortrijk attack 1.16 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 35% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 41%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Liège win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 54%, Kortrijk 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Kortrijk's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liège 1.36 PPG, Kortrijk 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock. Liège (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights