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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Liège edge out K. Lierse S.K. 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat K. Lierse S.K. 2-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.52 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.02 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.13 / defence 0.84 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 49% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 25%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 52%, K. Lierse S.K. 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liège 1.48 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights