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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Liège edge out K. Lierse S.K. 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat K. Lierse S.K. 2-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.23 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.17 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 37% | Draw 29% | K. Lierse S.K. 34%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 58%, K. Lierse S.K. 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liège 1.44 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights