🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Liège edge out Club Brugge II 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat Club Brugge II 3-2 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.79 xG and Club Brugge II 1.07 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Liège beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Club Brugge II outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Club Brugge II attack 0.96 / defence 1.17, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 54% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge II 22%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 53%, Club Brugge II 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Club Brugge II's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liège 1.45 PPG, Club Brugge II 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock. Liège (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights