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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Liège edge out AS Eupen 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat AS Eupen 2-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 34, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.33 xG and AS Eupen 1.08 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.09 / defence 0.88 against AS Eupen attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 42% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 30%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 52%, AS Eupen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

AS Eupen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liège 1.47 PPG, AS Eupen 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights