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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out KRC Genk II 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat KRC Genk II 1-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.33 xG and SK Beveren 2.68 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.21 / defence 1.48 against SK Beveren attack 1.34 / defence 0.84, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 17% | Draw 17% | SK Beveren 66%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 71%, SK Beveren 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

SK Beveren's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights