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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KRC Genk II and Seraing United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Leunen, Regular Season - 18, as KRC Genk II and Seraing United drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.26 xG and Seraing United 1.81 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.94 / defence 1.32 against Seraing United attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 27% | Draw 23% | Seraing United 50%, with Seraing United to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 72%, Seraing United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Seraing United's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 1.04 PPG, Seraing United 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Seraing United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights