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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as RAAL La Louvière edge out KRC Genk II 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RAAL La Louvière beat KRC Genk II 0-1 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.18 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.88 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KRC Genk II fell 1.2 short of their projected output. RAAL La Louvière landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.96 / defence 1.29 against RAAL La Louvière attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 24% | Draw 22% | RAAL La Louvière 54%, with RAAL La Louvière to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 77%, RAAL La Louvière 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.54. That form edge translated into the three points. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights