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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Patro Eisden run riot with a 1-4 hammering of KRC Genk II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat KRC Genk II 1-4 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 0.72 xG and Patro Eisden 1.37 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Patro Eisden outscored their 1.37 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against Patro Eisden attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 18% | Draw 32% | Patro Eisden 51%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 69%, Patro Eisden 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights