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Patro Eisden cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KRC Genk II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat KRC Genk II 1-3 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 0.81 xG and Patro Eisden 1.69 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.87 / defence 1.26 against Patro Eisden attack 0.95 / defence 0.61, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 18% | Draw 24% | Patro Eisden 58%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 70%, Patro Eisden 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights