KRC Genk II 2-3 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KRC Genk II and Lommel United meet at Cegeka Arena in Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
KRC Genk II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, KRC Genk II have posted 2W 5D 3L at Cegeka Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lommel United have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lommel United's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Lommel United, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Lommel United winning.
It is worth noting that Lommel United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 55% versus Lommel United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 55% | Lommel United 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.43 xG and Lommel United 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.922 / defence 1.167 | Lommel United attack 1.043 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.453. Data: 22 KRC Genk II games / 50 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 31% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 46%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Lommel United 2.17. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 70% | Lommel United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 31% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG KRC Genk II 1.43 / Lommel United 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.922 / def 1.167 | Lommel United attack 1.043 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Lommel United xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Lommel United kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
KRC Genk II 2 - 3 Lommel United.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United part of?
KRC Genk II vs Lommel United is a Relegation Round - 8 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 31% chance of winning, Lommel United a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both KRC Genk II and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
Record (3 meetings): KRC Genk II 0W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 3W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Lommel United in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Lommel United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (0.92) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (1.04x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 22/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
31%
3.20
23%
4.33
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.20
1.77
Lommel United xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
5%
18.74
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.77 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 6W 8D 15L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Lommel United's form line: 14W 3D 12L from 29 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 7W 2D 5L from 14 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.48 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Current Season
Lommel United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Lommel United in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 6W 8D 15L in their last 29 games (0.90 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 14W 3D 12L in their last 29 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.00 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 0-4 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
7
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 2, Lommel United have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when KRC Genk II 0-2 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 57%, Lommel United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for KRC Genk II and 64% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United in 36%; KRC Genk II have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Lommel United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 43% of Lommel United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of KRC Genk II's matches and 64% of Lommel United's.
Do KRC Genk II and Lommel United tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lommel United edge out KRC Genk II 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat KRC Genk II 2-3 at Cegeka Arena, Relegation Round - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.43 xG and Lommel United 1.77 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lommel United outscored their 1.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Lommel United attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 22/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 31% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 46%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 55%, Lommel United 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.