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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KRC Genk II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat KRC Genk II 1-3 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.03 xG and Kortrijk 1.36 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kortrijk outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Kortrijk attack 1.15 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 28% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 44%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 69%, Kortrijk 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Kortrijk's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.56. Form held, and they took the win. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights