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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KRC Genk II and KAA Gent II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 34, as KRC Genk II and KAA Gent II drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.78 xG and KAA Gent II 1.22 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against KAA Gent II attack 0.79 / defence 1.29, drawn from 60/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 50% | Draw 23% | KAA Gent II 26%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 64%, KAA Gent II 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

KAA Gent II's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 0.97 PPG, KAA Gent II 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights