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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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K. Lierse S.K. cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KRC Genk II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

K. Lierse S.K. beat KRC Genk II 1-3 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.24 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.43 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.88 / defence 1.25 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 33% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 41%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 69%, K. Lierse S.K. 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 0.88 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights