🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

KRC Genk II cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Francs Borains.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KRC Genk II beat Francs Borains 3-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.30 xG and Francs Borains 1.52 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.80 / defence 1.37 against Francs Borains attack 0.82 / defence 1.39, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 32% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 42%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual KRC Genk II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 70%, Francs Borains 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Francs Borains's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Francs Borains arrived the stronger side — 1.03 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with KRC Genk II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights