KRC Genk II 1-2 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KRC Genk II and Francs Borains meet at De Leunen in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
KRC Genk II (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
KRC Genk II's home record at De Leunen: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — KRC Genk II are significantly better at De Leunen than their overall form suggests.
Francs Borains have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Francs Borains have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for KRC Genk II against 1.20 for Francs Borains. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — KRC Genk II register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Francs Borains in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for KRC Genk II, 0 for Francs Borains and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 72% and Francs Borains 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 66% | Francs Borains 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.65 xG and Francs Borains 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.318 / defence 0.913 | Francs Borains attack 0.964 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.407. KRC Genk II carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 KRC Genk II games / 32 Francs Borains games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 47% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 29%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Francs Borains 3.45. KRC Genk II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KRC Genk II at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 70% | Francs Borains 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 47% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG KRC Genk II 1.65 / Francs Borains 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.318 / def 0.913 | Francs Borains attack 0.964 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Francs Borains xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains?
KRC Genk II 1 - 2 Francs Borains.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains part of?
KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 47% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both KRC Genk II and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Francs Borains?
Record (2 meetings): KRC Genk II 1W | Draws 1 | Francs Borains 0W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Francs Borains in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KRC Genk II's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Francs Borains's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.96x) against KRC Genk II's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.12
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.88
1.24
Francs Borains xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.24 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 12W 7D 13L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Francs Borains's form line: 10W 5D 17L from 32 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Francs Borains, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for KRC Genk II against 1.09 for Francs Borains. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L).
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 5W 2D 9L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KRC Genk II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.22 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Early Season
Francs Borains
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 12W 7D 13L in their last 32 games (1.34 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Francs Borains away?
KRC Genk II's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.50 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KRC Genk II won 2-5 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
KRC Genk II
3
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 2, Francs Borains have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Francs Borains 2-2 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Francs Borains?
KRC Genk II have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 69%, Francs Borains 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for KRC Genk II and 62% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Francs Borains?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of KRC Genk II's games and 56% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of KRC Genk II's matches and 62% of Francs Borains's.
Do KRC Genk II and Francs Borains tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Francs Borains defy the odds to beat KRC Genk II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat KRC Genk II 1-2 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.65 xG and Francs Borains 1.24 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.32 / defence 0.91 against Francs Borains attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 47% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 29%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Francs Borains win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 66%, Francs Borains 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Francs Borains's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 1.34 PPG, Francs Borains 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.