KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beerschot VA (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KRC Genk II face Beerschot VA.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beerschot VA make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KRC Genk II have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Cegeka Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena.
Beerschot VA (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Beerschot VA have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beerschot VA are 1.40 PPG clear of KRC Genk II in recent Challenger Pro League fixtures (2.40 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Beerschot VA have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to KRC Genk II's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Beerschot VA winning.
It is worth noting that Beerschot VA have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 63% versus Beerschot VA 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 63% | Beerschot VA 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.15 xG and Beerschot VA 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.891 / defence 0.917 | Beerschot VA attack 0.947 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.339. Beerschot VA's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 KRC Genk II games / 41 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 36% | Draw 28% | Beerschot VA 36%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Beerschot VA 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 50% | Beerschot VA 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 36% | Draw 28% | Beerschot VA 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG KRC Genk II 1.15 / Beerschot VA 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.891 / def 0.917 | Beerschot VA attack 0.947 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Beerschot VA xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Cegeka Arena.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA part of?
KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 36% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA?
Record (6 meetings): KRC Genk II 0W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 6W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 0.89x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.95x) against KRC Genk II's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.54
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.31
1.16
Beerschot VA xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.16 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 9W 13D 19L from 41 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 26W 6D 9L across 41 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 5W 6D 9L from 20 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 12W 3D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.85 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beerschot VA in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 9W 13D 19L in their last 41 games (0.98 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 26W 6D 9L in their last 41 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.05 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.95 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
KRC Genk II
0
Draws
6
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA?
From 6 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 55%, Beerschot VA 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (KRC Genk II) and 45% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 45%; KRC Genk II have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 45% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of KRC Genk II's recent games and 45% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.