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Dominant Kortrijk run riot with a 5-2 hammering of RSC Anderlecht II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat RSC Anderlecht II 5-2 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.52 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.02 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RSC Anderlecht II outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 17/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 49% | Draw 26% | RSC Anderlecht II 25%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 59%, RSC Anderlecht II 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights