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Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Patro Eisden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat Patro Eisden 2-0 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.95 xG and Patro Eisden 1.39 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Patro Eisden landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Patro Eisden attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 11/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 23% | Draw 33% | Patro Eisden 44%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Kortrijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 63%, Patro Eisden 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.41 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights