🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Lommel United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat Lommel United 4-2 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.43 xG and Lommel United 1.53 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against Lommel United attack 1.31 / defence 1.20, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 34% | Draw 28% | Lommel United 38%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kortrijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 64%, Lommel United 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Lommel United's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.45 PPG, Lommel United 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights