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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Kortrijk run riot with a 4-1 hammering of KRC Genk II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat KRC Genk II 4-1 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.92 xG and KRC Genk II 1.09 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 1.27 / defence 0.96 against KRC Genk II attack 0.84 / defence 1.11, drawn from 19/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 57% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 21%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 60%, KRC Genk II 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights