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Shock result as Kortrijk defy the odds to beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-0 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.14 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.68 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 1/30 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 26% | Draw 24% | K. Lierse S.K. 50%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Kortrijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 67%, K. Lierse S.K. 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.10 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights