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Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Francs Borains.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat Francs Borains 2-0 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.04 xG and Francs Borains 1.14 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Francs Borains landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Francs Borains attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 33% | Draw 30% | Francs Borains 37%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Kortrijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 66%, Francs Borains 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Francs Borains's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.22 PPG, Francs Borains 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights