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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kortrijk and Club Brugge II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Kortrijk and Club Brugge II drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.23 xG and Club Brugge II 1.17 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Club Brugge II attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 36% | Draw 30% | Club Brugge II 34%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 67%, Club Brugge II 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Club Brugge II's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.33 PPG, Club Brugge II 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights