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Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out Beerschot VA 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat Beerschot VA 1-0 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 2.06 xG and Beerschot VA 1.26 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Beerschot VA landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 1.47 / defence 1.01 against Beerschot VA attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 56% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 23%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 56%, Beerschot VA 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Beerschot VA's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.44 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights