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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Kortrijk defy the odds to beat AS Eupen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat AS Eupen 1-0 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.26 xG and AS Eupen 1.55 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.90 / defence 0.88 against AS Eupen attack 1.31 / defence 1.21, drawn from 7/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 29% | Draw 29% | AS Eupen 42%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kortrijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 66%, AS Eupen 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

AS Eupen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.37 PPG, AS Eupen 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights