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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over KAA Gent II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat KAA Gent II 2-4 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KAA Gent II 0.93 xG and SK Beveren 1.75 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. KAA Gent II beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SK Beveren outscored their 1.75 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KAA Gent II attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against SK Beveren attack 1.26 / defence 0.84, drawn from 20/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KAA Gent II 20% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 57%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KAA Gent II 50%, SK Beveren 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KAA Gent II's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

SK Beveren's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights